A poll that shows Michigan is tied 47-47

I'm not familiar with this poll, but the folks at Battleground Watch say they are legit. My takeaway for all of these polls is to see if Obama is under 50%. An incumbent <50 10="10" 12="12" 50="50" a="a" all="all" and="and" battlegrounds="battlegrounds" bit="bit" bitter="bitter" but="but" chances...="chances..." clingers="clingers" days="days" difficult="difficult" election.="election." for="for" from="from" i="i" if="if" in="in" incumbent="incumbent" is="is" just="just" ll="ll" michigan="michigan" more="more" most="most" nbsp="nbsp" of="of" out="out" pennsyvania--="pennsyvania--" poor="poor" position="position" romney--a="romney--a" still="still" take="take" ten="ten" than="than" the="the" them="them" think="think" those="those" tie="tie" toss="toss" under="under" ups="ups" very="very" virtually="virtually" we="we" worst="worst">
--WRD

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Battleground Watch --Talking only about the states that matter this election year

Our friends from Foster White McCollum and Baydou (FWMB) have another intriguing survey of Michigan showing the race all tied up at 47 a piece:


Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences for the presidential election.

An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

For President:

Barack Obama 47

Mitt Romney 47

Other 2

Undecided 4



For anyone quick to dismiss FWMB, read this post first, and dismiss the results at your own peril. Much of the criticism revolves around the fact that FWMB gives complete transparency with their numbers which allows people who don’t like the results cherry pick data and misrepresent the weightings and findings. If you review the polls of FWMB that I’ve blogged they are rarely too far off the media and usually ahead of the curve. If you poll enough you’ll have an outlier or two and that is true for FWMB. But throughout this cycle I have been impressed with their transparency and willingness to face substantive critics head on. Considering how consistently awful Marist polls have been it is incredible people criticize FWMB but leave Marist unchallenged solely because Marist tells them what they want to hear. On election night, we’ll all know how everyone did.