BREAKING: How and Why Romney/Ryan will carry Wisconsin

Some excellent analysis from Free Republic.

Work hard, lets deliver this, bring it home.

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Free Republic


How and Why Romney/Ryan will carry Wisconsin

10/25/2012
barry obi

Posted on Thursday, October 25, 2012 9:57:54 PM by barryobi

Have no fear FReepers, we will win Wisconsin and there are a lot good reasons why.



1. Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast. 2008 was unusual because Obama won by 412,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.



2. Fast forward to 2012, and the recall election on June 5th. Scott Walker was the devil incarnate to the public employee unions and the Democrats in this state. They went ALL IN to get him out, spent millions on ads, flew in hundreds of get out the vote union thugs, and they got a non presidential record 2.5 million voters to turn out. What was the result? The Democrat candidate lost to Walker by 171,000 votes, or 53%-46%.



3. With the lower enthusiasm for Obama, I doubt the turnout will be 2.9 million like in 2008, but will be higher than the 2.5 million for the recall. Let's say 2.8 million votes, or 300,000 more than the recall election. If the people who voted for Walker vote Romney this fall, Obama would have to make up the 171,000 deficit in just 300,000 votes. This means Obama would have to get 4 out of 5 votes out of that 300,000 to prevail.



4. The Ryan factor...There are 8 Congressional districts in Wisconsin and Ryan's District 1 is one of the more balanced districts. In 2004 Bush won over Kerry 54/46, but Ryan won his race 65/33. In 2008 Obama WON District 1 51/48, but Ryan won his race 64/35. Ryan is on the ballot for both his Congressional seat and as VP. The 'favorite son' factor is sure to add votes to Romney/Ryan that Romney would not have gotten without Ryan on the ticket. IF Ryan could win his district even 60/40 for Romney it would add almost 40,000 votes to Romney's totals vs what Obama got in 2008. In short, Ryan will take a pretty 50/50 district and make it more red than it normally is.



5. Thompson/Baldwin Senate race. Madison liberal lesbian Baldwin had a huge money advantage in the early part of this Senate race and savaged the popular former Governor. Tommy has found his voice and now has enough cash to compete with Baldwin on the airwaves. Tommy has taken a narrow lead in the race, and Karl Rove has poured his Crossroads USA cash into pointing out Baldwins radical votes. She is getting scared and running over the top anti Tommy ads. Tommy will prevail and hopefully this will help the top of ticket.



6. Reince Priebus ..The recall election gave Reince and the state Republican Party the opportunity to build the MOST sophisticated GOTV operation in the nation. The raw enthusiasm and incredible infrastructure which was built in the recall war this spring and summer was kept intact for the fall campaign. The Democrats thought their superior GOTV operation would win the recall and they got crushed 53-46. This fall will be closer, but I predict 51-49 for Romney/Ryan.







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