POLL: Romney within 2.7 points of Obummer in Michigan!

Obama is fighting to hold what he thought was safe all over the country now. MI, PA, MN, and others are in play, and IA, WI, FL, VA, FL, NH, CO, & NV are Romney or trending Romney. The biggest thing may be that Dear Leader can't seem to get to 50% anywhere that matters. A very bad spot for an incumbent with a week to go.

-------------------------------------------------

Poll: Romney closes gap on Obama in Michigan


Marisa Schultz and Kim Kozlowski / The Detroit News

October 30, 2012

Mitt Romney is within striking distance of Barack Obama in Michigan in the final days before the election, buoyed by more who are convinced the Republican is a viable alternative to the president, with the ability to turn around the economy.

Obama's lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama's lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll's 3.8 percentage point margin of error. It's the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.

"Mitt Romney's numbers ... are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week," said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. "But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?"

The Obama campaign Tuesday announced its first network TV ads will begin airing this week in Michigan. Neither candidate had bought airtime here, but earlier Tuesday, Romney's super PAC launched a $2.2 million advertising final blitz in Michigan.

That brings Restore Our Future's investment in Michigan post-primary up to nearly $10 million, according to the PAC -- which until now had been unanswered by the Obama campaign.

Obama surged in Michigan to a double-digit lead after the Democratic National Convention that put a spotlight on the rescue of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Inc., and on women's health, but the president's lead dwindled following a listless first debate with the Republican that voters here deemed a clear Romney win.

Based on his three debate performances and an appeal to the middle of the electorate, poll respondents gave Romney a second look. "He became a viable alternative," Czuba said.

Karen Shineldecker, an independent voter and schoolteacher, is among those Romney can count on.
"Our economy is in such dire straits at this point," said Shineldecker, 43, of Ludington. "Romney is better equipped to lead the nation since he ran his own business and has to balance a budget. If someone is going to fix our economy, it should be a successful businessman."

In the final week before Election Day, the Michigan polling looks much like the tight contest in 2004 when John Kerry beat President George W. Bush by about 3 points, Czuba said, rather than 2008 when Obama beat U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona by more than 16 points. No Republican has won Michigan since 1988. And no president has been born in Michigan -- two trends Romney hopes to change.

Romney gets economic edge

Obama has maintained his lead among likely voters on handling foreign affairs and better understanding their values, but for the first time Romney has a slight edge on handling the economy.

Also new in this poll, Romney now has a more favorable impression than unfavorable among likely voters at 44.7 percent favorable. Obama's favorable rating is 47.8 percent.

The gains Romney made in October are attributable to more men (5 points) shifting away from Obama. Romney has a 6-point lead among men and a narrow lead among all independents. Obama's stronghold remains women, as his campaign continues to drive home the message of women's health care and equal pay. His lead among Michigan women is 11 points, the survey found.

"From the Obama campaign perspective, what they've got to do is guarantee they turn out their vote because they have a slight advantage," Czuba said. "For the Romney campaign, it's a little harder. I think they need a combination of winning those undecided voters ... plus hoping the Democrats don't have as strong of a turnout."

Until now, neither campaign had spent money on advertising here, instead pumping money into toss-up states such as Ohio. Meantime, the Romney campaign has sent surrogates to Michigan, including former first lady Laura Bush on Sunday, Ann Romney on Monday and McCain on Tuesday.

"It's no surprise that Governor Romney's momentum narrowed the race in Michigan to a statistical tie," Kelsey Knight, a Romney spokeswoman in Michigan, said in statement.

"There is an enthusiasm building with the grass-roots and among Michigan voters behind Governor Romney's plan for a real economic recovery and a stronger middle class after four years of failure from President Obama."

Obama braces for close call

Democratic officials said they aren't taking anything for granted. In recent days, Obama's campaign has blasted Romney for a TV spot in Ohio on the auto bailout and Chrysler building Jeeps in China, calling it "dishonest."

"Our campaign in Michigan has always had two operating assumptions: The election will be close, and we're going to win it with a superior ground game and by putting forth clear policies that help the middle class," Obama campaign spokesman Matt McGrath said in a statement. "With one week to go until Election Day, it's clear we're in a strong position, but we're not taking anything for granted."

Brandon Lyons, 24, a student at Northern Michigan University, said he'll vote for Obama because of his leadership on the economy.

"He will create more jobs," said Lyons, of Ishpeming in the Upper Peninsula.

"If he is elected for a second term, we are going to start moving forward."

Glengariff Group conducted the live-operator survey of 600 likely voters from Saturday through Monday. Respondents were contacted via land-line (80 percent) and cell phones (20 percent). The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

mschultz@detroitnews.com

(313) 222-2310