Polls: US Senate Should have 53 or 54 Republicans

Let's hope this guy's right!

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Republican Senate majority likely on election day


Elections 2012  October 9, 2012

By: Dean Chambers of the Washington Examiner


A WBUR/MassINC poll released today shows Republican Senator Scott Brown leading 48 percent to 45 percent over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in the Massachusetts senate race.

A new Mason-Dixon poll released today shows Republican Rick Berg and Democrat Heidi Heitkamp tied at 47 percent for the North Dakota senate seat.

Recent polling indicates Republican Deb Fischer leading former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey in Nebraska.

Democrats are safe bets to win the open Maine senate seat via the candidacy of Independent former governor Angus King (who is widely expected to caucus with the Democrats as senator) and hold on to seats in Hawaii, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington state and West Virginia. Pennsylvania also leans to the Democrats. Those seats, and the senate seats not up for election this year, would give the Democrats 45 senate seats, and the Republicans 43 seats, leaving 12 other seats up for grabs. Those 12 seats, highlighted in this analysis, will decide the senate majority for the next session of Congress.

Florida: This race matches up incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson with Congressman Connie Mack, the son of former Florida Republican Senator Connie Mack who was elected in 1988. This election seems a lot like the 1988 campaign when Mack's dad ran against a moderately liberal Congressman named Buddy MacKay for the seat and trailed in the polls for just about the entire campaign, but ran ads that said “Buddy you're a liberal.” One of the newspapers ran a headline “hey Buddy you're a senator” in a Dewey defeats Truman moment, but when the absentee ballots were counted days later, Mack had a narrow lead and won the seat. His son will do the same. Leans Republican.

Arizona: Republican Congressman Jeff Flake faces Democrat and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona. Arizona remains a solid Republican state and Flake is the stronger candidate in this race. This race is likely Republican.

Connecticut: After losing two years ago the state's other senate seat to Richard Blumenthal, who got caught lying about serving in Vietnam, Republican Linda McMahon hopes for better odds this year against Congressman Chris Murphy, the Democrat. The race will be close but McMahon will outspend Murphy and win the race for the Republicans.


Indiana: State Treasurer Richard Mourdock defeated Senator Richard Lugar in the primary this past year and faces Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly. Indiana is still a strong Republican state and Mourdock should easily win this race. This one is likely Republican.

Massachusetts: This race is between Republican incumbent Senator Scott Brown, who won the special election in 2010 and Democrat nominee Elizabeth Warren. Brown faces two large challenges in his question for reelection: the heavily Democratic makeup of the state's electorate (48 percent Democrats to 12 percent Republicans) and the wide margin by which President Obama is leading in the state, despite it also being the home state of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, the state's former governor. While Brown is personally more popular, Warren has effectively mobilized her base among Democrats who are strongly against the notion of Republicans gaining a majority in the senate. Brown has to win an enormously huge percentage of the independents voters, who make up about 40 percent of the state, to have a chance at winning this race. Democrats are much more strongly backing Warren than they did their 2010 nominee, state Attorney General Martha Coakley. The Real Clear Politics analysis sums up this race by saying, “Brown has done most everything right for a Republican in the Bay State, but in a presidential year even that might not be enough.” The key words there, other than Scott Brown doing everything right, is might not be enough. This race is a toss-up.

Missouri: Controversial incumbent Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill faces the equally controversial Republican Congressman Todd Akin in this race. McCaskill got caught flying chartered jets at taxpayer expense and called for the public to “take up pitchforks” against Republicans for opposing President Obama's legislative agenda in the Senate. Akin nearly destroyed his chances with his infamous “legitimate rape” gaffe. The safest bet one can make on this race, is that the winner of it will be surely the most vulnerable incumbent senator six years from now. As for the winner of this race, this year, the projection can only be that of toss-up.

Montana: Incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Tester, an upset winner six years ago, faces the state's only Congressman, Republican Denny Rehberg. Montana is a strongly Republican state and should reassert that leaning by sending Rehberg to Washington as senator. This state leans Republican.

Nevada: Republican Senator Dean Heller runs against Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley in this contest. Nevada is currently a quite competitive “purple” state that used to be a strongly Republican state. Most of the polls have shown Heller leading and in a Republican leaning turned “purple” state that usually means a Republican win. This race leans Republican.

North Dakota: Congressman Republican Rick Berg seeks a promotion to the senate, and runs against state Attorney General Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. This is a very heavily Republican state that Romney will easily win and help bring out enough votes to help Berg get elected in a much closer race. This state leans Republican.

Ohio: This state is most likely to be the center of gravity in the presidential race this year and the winner of this state for the presidency might also carry the party's nominee in this race to victory in the senate race. If Obama wins Ohio, expect incumbent Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown to hold on to his seat. If Mitt Romney wins in this state, it is will be more likely that Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel will be elected senator. Recent polls show the state trending toward Romney and the senate race has been tied in most polls. This race leans Republican.

Virginia: This race is a battle between former Democratic governor Tim Kaine and former governor and senator, Republican nominee George Allen. This race has been all but tied for the entire election season and will be very close. The winner of this state in the presidential election might help one of the candidates win this race, but that is not assured. This race is a toss-up.

Wisconsin: This state elected Republicans Ron Johnson as senator and Scott Walker as governor two years ago and is becoming more Republican. But this year's senate race has been quite close between Democratic nominee, Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin and former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson. This state is too close to call for this senate seat as well as in the presidential race. This race is a toss-up.

Of those 12 senate races, eight are projected to be won by the Republican nominees and four of them are toss-ups. This leads to 51 Republican senators, 45 Democratic senators and four seats too close to call. For the Democrats to hold on to a majority, which seems highly unlikely, they would need to sweep the toss-up races and win at least one of the races listed above as leans Republican. That is not likely. The more likely scenario is the Republican majority being made up of 53 or 54 senators in the next session of Congress.



The polls got UnSkewed, now the media gets it too -- UnSkewedMedia.com.