Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Rasmussen Post-Debate Poll: Romney Pulls Even in Ohio, 48-48

Finally, Romney has caught up to Dear Leader in Ohio. If what I think is true, and Romney has 257 Electoral Votes (RCP's 206, + CO, FL, and VA), Ohio's 18 will put him over the top with 275. So this is the best route to victory, though not the only one.

Again, Obama can't get above 50, and with 12 days left, that is a terrible place to be for an incumbent. It looks close, but if 2% do plan to vote for someone else, and the majority of the undecideds break for the challenger, Romney wins something like 49.5% to 48.5%, about 1 point.

If we don't win Ohio, then we need at least 3 of these 6 to make up for it: WI, IA, NV, NH, PA, and MI. Romney could win all 6, lose all 6, or somewhere in the middle.  YIKES.

Post-Debate Poll: Romney Pulls Even in Ohio