Some very interesting polling data...10/9/2012

FW: From the King report...some interesting polling insights  Hat tip to GG member Dave A.
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Tuesday, Oct 9, 2012

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35. That's a 24-point swing among independents since 2008, a group that makes up anywhere from a quarter to a third of voters, and yet Battleground still has Obama in the lead 49-48…? [In 2008, Obama won by 7%, 53% to 46%]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/08/Battleground-Romney-Crushing-Obama-Indies

Polls are showing the expected 3% to 5% debate bounce in favor or Romney. But weekend polls tend to produce results more favorable for Democrats, while mid-week polls tend to show a GOP bias. This is due to the demographics as to who is available and willing to speak to pollsters over the weekend.

The Gallup poll that shows Romney and Obama tied at 47% is for ‘registered voters’. The new Pew poll of likely voters shows Romney 49%, Obama 45% [18-point shift among women]; registered voters are tied at 46%. http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows Romney and Obama are tied at 48%. This is a three-day moving average of likely voters; so the weekend polling erased Romney’s small lead as of Friday.

Debate bounces are like convention bounces. In the words of Ben Bernanke, they are ‘transitory’.

As we keep averring, barring new developments, the race will be close and will depend on the turnout of each party, independents and how undecided voters break.

‘Undecided voters’ tend to break decidedly against the incumbent president or incumbent party. In Congressional and gubernatorial races ‘undecided voters’ don’t break against incumbents as much.

Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger. The 155 polls we collected and analyzed were the final polls conducted in each particular race; most were completed within two weeks of Election Day… http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

Dick Morris on ‘undecided voters’: I compared the final Gallup polls with the actual results in every race in which an incumbent president was opposing an insurgent since 1964 [including 2004]…In these races, the undecided vote went heavily for the insurgent and the incumbent lost vote share between the final poll and the election, even when the incumbent was winning the contest easily overall. Six of eight presidents seeking reelection performed worse than the final Gallup poll predicted, while one finished the same (Reagan in 1984) and one gained votes (Bush in 2004). Seven of the nine insurgent candidates did better than the final Gallup survey predicted…

In other words, of the total of 19 points that shifted between the final poll and the election results, 17 points or 89 percent went to the challenger…

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/04/18/undecided_lean_to_insurgent_113883.html

Measuring the Undecideds Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducted the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and isolated the respondents whom they classified as “up for grabs” — either undecided or leaning only slightly to one of the candidates. Several demographic indicators suggest that the remaining voters are ripe for the picking for Romney: 68 percent are white, 57 percent are married, 53 percent are men, 70 percent think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 60 percent disapprove of how Obama is doing his job…

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/327856/measuring-undecideds-jim-geraghty