Monday, January 13, 2014

(More on the U.S, Senate) If Republicans Re-Take Senate, Say Goodbye To The Reign Of Dingy Harry

If Republicans Re-Take Senate, Say Goodbye To The Reign Of Dingy Harry

By on January 1, 2014 Subscribe to Joseph R. Carducci's Feed
Senate Majority Leader pouts
Could we be looking at the end of the reign of Senate majority leader, Dingy Harry Reid (Dem, NV)? The GOP needs a net win of 6 seats in order to re-take the majority in the Senate. With Democrats defending seven seats in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 and very few, if any, of their own seats being considered vulnerable this certainly seems reasonable.
Democrats have controlled the US Senate since 2007 and now face a challenging map to defend. Of course, there is still a lot of time between now and November, so we should not get too cocky. The GOP has had some spectacular failures in recent years. For example, the expectation in 2012 was to gain the four seats needed to take over the Senate. However, the result was a net loss of two seats.
Despite all this, there is a clear path to a GOP Senate majority. Simply grab a minimum of three open red state seats vacated by retiring Democratic incumbents and then win a few of the remaining vulnerable races. Montana is one of those states. Max Baucus has decided not to face re-election, given that he is a 36-year incumbent and one of the chief authors of ObamaCare. Baucus called the launch a “huge trainwreck.” His interim replacement is Lt. Governor John Walsh. Early polling shows Walsh trailing the GOP nominee by double digits.
Obama lost South Dakota by 18 points in 2012 and this could be another seat ripe for the taking with the retirement of Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson. The hypothetical match-up here is Republican former Governor Mike Rounds, who holds excellent name recognition and high favorability ratings, and Democrat Rick Weiland, who has failed to win election to Congress twice. Back in October, Rounds was leading this hypothetical race by 15 points.
West Virginia also looks like a great possibility for the GOP where nearly half of voters support impeaching President Obama. Republicans will likely put up Shelley Moore Capito, who has been a House of Representatives member since 2000 and has wide name recognition and strong fundraising ability. She is likely to face Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. Numerous polls already show Capito with a wide lead.
Beyond these three seats, there are also a number of other vulnerable Democratic incumbents. These includes Alaskan Senator Mark Begich, who was first elected in 2008. In Arkansas, Senator Mark Pryor is running for re-election. He has been called the most vulnerable Senator from either party, and is facing a challenge from GOP Iraq war veteran Tom Cotton. Then there is the vulnerable Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, who has been one of the most vocal backers of ObamaCare. Landrieu has started to distance herself from both this unpopular law and the President himself. Kay Hagan in North Carolina is also vulnerable, with her once comfortable polling lead over a field of potential GOP challengers now gone.
There are also several potential dark horse races which could feature Republican victories, although these will be much less likely. They include seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Oregon.
What do YOU think about this? Will the Republicans be able to re-take the Senate in 2014? Which races do you think are key? How many seats will the GOP pick up?
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